Our robust research and strategy approach is at the heart of our investment decision making process.
Research and Strategy Approach
Global Evolution’s research and strategy process combines a unique blend of top-down analysis to identify broad investment drivers with bottom-up country analysis to select dynamically improving economies. Our approach relies on proprietary quantitative models and analytical systems overlaid with qualitative analysis based on more than 175 years of combined emerging and frontier market investing experience.
Understanding the evolution of the global political and macroeconomic environment and how it influences the economies we invest in is a vital part of our investment process. A key part of our weekly strategy meeting is identifying changes in global risk sentiment or other variables affecting our core global investment themes. The analysis involves developing core scenarios for global rates, FX, commodities and equities.
Global Evolution utilizes a number of proprietary econometric models, in order to provide relative value across our universe of emerging and frontier economies, which is arguably the largest of any investment house. These include an ESG rating model, a hard currency sovereign credit spread valuation model, a credit rating model (providing indicators of likely rating changes), a debt sustainability model (derived from the IMF framework) and a local currency valuation model.
The models are complemented by a comprehensive political-economy profile building process for each economy, fostering a core scenario. The process of monitoring ongoing macroeconomic and political variables is assisted by our extensive country-specific database, in-house information system, regular country visits to maintain contact with policy makers and frequent dialogue with informed individuals from the IMF or World Bank or other research institutions.